Secession and Regional Independence within the European Union

Kai-Olaf Lang and Nicolai von Ondarza

The European Union, second half of the present decade: Scotland quits the united Kingdom after a successful referendum on independence and two years  of talks with London. Already governed for some years by the Scottish National Party (SNP). Scotland’s road to statehood is quick and relatively conflict-free. Unlike in Belgium, where protracted government negotiations collapsing coalitions with up to seven parties, and successive constitutional reforms repeatedly postpone the break-up until the nation’s paralysis persuades even the most die-hard supporters of a united Belgium to abandon a state that is clinically dead. A different situation again in Spain, where Catalan frustration after the election victory of the centralist People’s Party in autumn 2011 transforms into calls for independence. The bitter opposition between Madrid’s defenders of unity and Catalan supporters of secession provokes a deep Spanish constitutional crisis. Farfetched as they may seem, scenarios of that kind could become reality sooner than we think if centrifugal and separatist forces lead to the disintegration of states and the borders in Europe are again set in motion.

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